Today, I want to share my personal thoughts on the prognosis for the S&P500 based on market cycles. As an investor, I pay close attention to market cycles because they can provide valuable insights into potential future trends.
There are two important cycles that have been identified, a medium-term cycle (blue) and a longer-term cycle (red). Right now, we are in the middle of a phase where both cycles are on their way to reaching their cycle high. As a result, the rally could continue until at least mid-March. After that, the medium-term cycle will begin to decline, while the longer-term cycle will continue to show growth for another month. It is unclear what this means for market trends, but it could potentially lead to profit-taking or a more volatile period.
Looking ahead, a weaker market phase is expected during the summer. However, as of today, a new rally could potentially start from the beginning of September.